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For thousands of years, gold coins have been used as currency in many cultures. It is believed that the first gold coins used as currency were produced somewhere between 560 and 547 B.C. by King Croesus of Lydia. Ever since then, gold coins have been used by countless other civilizations as a form of currency. Gold coins today are used by some people as a form of investment. Many investors believe that investing in gold coins is safer than other forms of currency is because of its security. The currency of any country has the risk of devaluation and inflation. Gold is independent from political or economic variables that are associated with other forms of currency. Gold has also...
Gold-MiningStocks.com Reports – Gold Price at Highest Point for 17 Years - Gold Stocks Populate List of Highest Gainers Concerns regarding inflation, state of the US economy following Hurricane Katrina, deterioration of global currencies, and rocketing oil prices create volatility and drive investors towards increased gold holdings. POINT ROBERTS, WA, Delta, B.C. September 19, 2005 – Gold-MiningStocks.com (GMS) reports that shares of gold mining companies rose sharply in late trading on Friday due to concerns regarding inflation, a deterioration of global currencies and ever increasing oil prices. GMS provides leading edge information and research regarding gold stocks, mining...
The gold price fluctuates according to the growth in demand for jewelry. Nowadays, people the world over are investing more money in gold jewelry than before, as investing in gold is termed a solid asset. This increase leads to an increase in gold prices. One factor that has an impact on the gold price is the weakening of the U.S. dollar. The fear that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken has led to individuals investing in gold, and this in turn has led to the increase of the gold price. With the rise of oil prices, there has been a rise in inflationary pressures globally. As inflation is erosion on the value of money, people tend to move their money into stable, real assets like...
Appears that the SILVER and GOLD PRICE broke today, or at the very least, must back off for a running start at $1,750 and 3400c. The GOLD PRICE lost $18.90 to close Comex at $1,737.90, and in the aftermarket lost another $10 to $1,726.10. Silver lost 42.6c, closing at 3372.5c, but dropped nearly another 25c in the aftermarket, falling to 3349c.
"Twas a big tumble for both. Let's look closer.
GOLD PRICE wiped out all its gains since Monday down at $1,725 support/resistance. After rising all week, that's not terribly surprising, but come Monday gold had better wake up and dig its claws into the bark, or it might fall out of the tree. Support stretches out its limbs at $1,725 and $1,705. Breaking those takes gold down to $1,680.
Up above, the GOLD PRICE high close has been $1,756.80 (yesterday), but it hasn't been able to breach $1,760. Therefore, watch that level on the upside.
Today's break probably wasn't enough to correct the move up from $1,523.90, but a drop to $1705 might be. More likely target is $1,675. That would also mark a kiss-back to the downtrend line.
SILVER PRICE looks like gold, but the range is 3440c and 3290c. Always bear in mind that silver is much more volatile than gold, both upside and downside.
First, if silver's rally has not been stymied at the 300 day moving average (3448c) for a goodly correction, then it can't fall below 3300c.
Next, a routine and shallow correction would sweep silver to 3250c - 3200c. If things get pricklier, then 3100c. Lowest target expected would be 2950c. Of course, we have to patiently wait to see how the correction unfolds.
Meanwhile, another buying opportunity is coming y'all's way. Stop your ears now against all the Wall Street Sirens who will be shrieking the silver and gold bull market has died. By now you understand that those folks don't know no more than somebody who works as a spokesman for a government numbers office.
One glance at the chart tells you that silver and gold and platinum and palladium all trod water this week. On the other hand, stocks rose this week, mostly today. US dollar index flatlined, and today silver and gold broke.
Lo and Behold! The Dow exceeded 12,850 today, and fact of the business is, nearly reached the May intraday high (12,876). Dow today gained a respectable 156.82 points (1.23%) to close at 12,862.23, nearly on the 12,869.95 high. S&P500 was even happier, rising 19.36 points (1.46%) to 1,344.90. What has everybody clambering all over each other to buy stocks?
Well, if you can believe it, government numbers. Personally, I don't put nearly as much stock in government numbers as I do in astrology, and I couldn't even tell you what my birth sign is -- the Possum, or the Turkey Buzzard, maybe.
Yet in this age of Reason, High Technology, and Right Big Government Lies, people still suck up those government numbers like they were single malt scotch at a free bar.
All this big news was that the government's unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, nearly the low for the last three years. (On another note, if you believe unemployment is 8.3%, call me about some wooden Krugerrands I can sell you really cheap.)
Truth is, market was looking for some excuse to rise, that was the news today, so it took the bait.
Oh, and by the way, did I tell y'all that a Greek Debt Deal Is Near?
Y'all might wonder why I am so negative on stocks. Because they are in a primary down trend (bear market), and if I don't do much more than keep you out of stocks, five years from now you'll still think I was the brightest bulb in the box. Hide and watch.,
That US Dollar Index this week played Bait and Switch. Looked like it would break through 79.50 and fall off the face of the earth, but it stopped and rallied and even ended the week 7.6 basis points higher than last Friday.
Today the dollar index lost a tee-tiny 3.2 basis points (0.04%), leaving me wondering why the currency market has gone so quiet all of a sudden. It ended at 78.959, but climbed as high as 79.357. This currency thing isn't clear. Dollar may rally still and euro may sink to its intrinsic value -- zero -- before the dollar does.
The 1.3200 level seems to have blocked the euro this week. Closed 1.3155 today, up 0.06%. Also bumping up against its critical 62 day moving average, and can't punch through. Brace yourself for another stumble for the euro.,
Reason hath fled the yen market. Closed today down 0.50% at 130.56c/Y100 (76.59/US$1), giving back a third of its spectacular gains since 24 January. It gaps down, then bounces right back, gaps up, then waterfalls down. Why does that picture make me thing of Nice Government Men in their cubicles phoning their partners in manipulation on the market floor?
Well, I know election year has come because so many pious confessions are spontaneously erupting from politicians' lips. Yesterday it was Bernard O'Bama shaking out his Christianity before the National Prayer Breakfast, and even Newt Gingrich is claiming to have got religion. You may think I am harsh to say these things, but I say it's as sorry as gully dirt for politicians to trade on their faith. I never have thought much of them "talkin'" Christians, only the "walkin'" ones. They never need to tell you what they believe, because you already know from watching 'em.
All the This Day In History websites say that the 16th (income tax) amendment was ratified 3 February 1913, but that's a lie. Secretary of State Philander Knox fraudulently and knowingly certified it when it had never passed. The irregularities in the supposed state ratifications are too numerous to list, but you can read all about it in "The Law That Never Was" by Bill Benson and Red Beckman. Of course, if you don't pay the income tax, the government will try to jail or kill you.
Speaking of the IRS, tax time is fast approaching. My friend, Dan Pilla, Jr., at www.taxhelponline.com has over 25 years experience fighting with the IRS for taxpayers' rights. If you have bad tax problems, Dan's the man to call. One of the 11 books he has written is "How to Get Tax Amnesty." Check him out. I receive no remuneration whatever for recommending Dan.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01933 Change : 0.000210 or 1.10%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1617.20 Change : 35.40 or 2.24%
Palladium Price Close Today : 697.75 Change : 12.40 or 1.81%
S&P 500 : 1,324.09 Change : 11.67 or 0.89%
Dow In GOLD$ : $150.46 Change : $ 0.20 or 0.14%
Dow in GOLD oz : 7.279 Change : 0.010 or 0.14%
Dow in SILVER oz : 376.47 Change : -3.66 or -0.96%
Dow Industrial : 12,716.46 Change : 83.55 or 0.66%
US Dollar Index : 78.93 Change : -0.356 or -0.45%
The SILVER and GOLD PRICE both enjoyed a profitable day. Gold busted clean through the $1,740 barrier and closed at a new high for the move, $1,747.10, up $9.30. Gold also posted a new intraday high, $1,750.77, but couldn't clear that $1,750 wall.
The GOLD PRICE Relative Strength Indicator has now reached the "Shur-nuff Overbought" level, but little else hints this rally will end any time soon. Above stands $1,800, which without question will pull out a big knobkerrie and pound gold about the head and shoulders. But that's $50 higher.
SILVER gained 54.5c today and closed Comex at a new high, barely, 3377.8c, but it didn't manage to clear the next resistance, 3400c. That hurdle just stands there, rock solid for the moment.
Thus although today silver encouraged us, it didn't reach in its pocket and put any real money on the table. We are left looking at the same range, 3300c to 3400c, and until silver breaks out of that prison, nothing has happened.
Y'all are going to look back one of these days and tell your children, "You know, once upon a time I had a chance to buy silver at thirty-four dollars!" They'll look at you in wonderment, and then ask, "Grandpappy, what's a dollar?"
Good thing about writing these commentaries is that every day that dawns brings a new chance to be wrong.
I was not, however, wrong to suspect silver and gold were about to jump, based on that one-slightly- down-other-slightly-up rule. But more below.
Okay, y'all, a Greek Debt Deal Is Near. Don't forget that. What kind of person would I be if I didn't remind y'all?
The US dollar, Laughingstock Of Fiat Currencies, only slightly less ridiculous than the euro and yen, shed 35.6 basis points (0.46%) today to land at 78.932. Yesterday's Big W resolved into a triple top, and obligingly fell lower than Friday's lows, to 78.623, relieving our minds of the worry that it might suddenly rally. Still, give the devil his due. Until the dollar clearly violates that 78.60 level, it's liable to do anything. Well, we all know that over time it can only do one thing -- slowly evaporate -- but I mean in the short run.
The scruffy and disgusting euro is flagging at the 62 day moving average, today 1.3209. Euro closed up 0.58% at 1.3158. Looks like it won't punch through, but will fall again for some sort of double bottom.
Did I mention that a Greek Debt Deal Is Near? Don't forget that. That will really help the euro by, uh, by, uh, well, I'm sure it will help Greece, at least. We won't talk about all the other bankrupt countries because one of them begins with an F.
On the other side of the globe pretty much nobody knows what they're doing, because they bid up the doomed yen 0.07% to 131.32c/Y100 (Y76.20/US$1). It's still rallying -- why is anybody's guess, given the fundamentals. Never mind, don't expect anything to make sense in a fiat money world.
Okay, stocks hung me on my own words, and sure's this world did manage to peck through 12,700. Dow rose 83.55 (0.66%) today and closed at 12,716.46. S&P500 rose through my strict 1,320 to 1,324.08, gaining 11.67 (0.89%).
As that notorious wit and indefatigable wag, Queen Victoria, used to quip, "We are not amused." Nor are we enthused. Stocks may simply be setting up for a little double top below 12,850, whence they will sink like your car keys when they were in your shirt pocket and you leaned over to get a better view of Hoover Dam. BICBW.
Anyway, who would want to own stocks and undergo all that fatigue of trying to pick the right one and do all that worrying when you can just buy gold or silver, stick it in the safe, and wait until Ben Bernancubus and the US Gov do what they do best: destroy the dollar.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01912 Change : -0.000284 or -1.47%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.80 Change : -40.00 or -2.47%
Palladium Price Close Today : 685.35 Change : -3.15 or -0.46%
S&P 500 : 1,312.39 Change : -0.62 or -0.05%
Dow In GOLD$ : $150.27 Change : $ (0.83) or -0.55%
Dow in GOLD oz : 7.269 Change : -0.040 or -0.55%
Dow in SILVER oz : 380.12 Change : 3.47 or 0.92%
Dow Industrial : 12,632.68 Change : -21.04 or -0.17%
US Dollar Index : 79.81 Change : 0.023 or 0.03%
Y'all have observed with me, over the last year or so, that a day when silver drops a little and the GOLD PRICE rises a little, is often followed by a day when both shoot up. Today the SILVER PRICE dropped 26.4c to 3323.3c, after making a slightly higher high at 3407c. Now, that might be might form the first half of a key reversal down (new intraday high and lower close, followed by lower close next day), but it might not. Silver still held up at 3300c, and never sank lower than 3292.
Cut silver some slack! It's butting its head against a big downtrend line from the August high, and it's still above its uptrend line from the 29 December low. We're warned, it MIGHT drop, but if it works its way through 3400c resistance, y'all can kiss silver good-bye because it will shoot skyward. But silver must hold 3292c.
While silver was dropping 26.4c, the GOLD PRICE gained $6.80 to $1,737.80, chugging on up a mighty steep mountain. More, gold pushed through $1,740 resistance to $1,747.32 (knocking hard on $1,750) and easily caught a downspike to $1,725.90, proving that support.
Like the SILVER PRICE, should the GOLD PRICE punch through $1,750, all the shorts will flee in panic, clutching their wallets. On the other hand, today also told you that gold cannot afford weakness at $1,725.
In bull markets these rallies always climb a wall of worry. People keep asking me if they should buy here, or buy half here and wait to see if metals will drop. First place, I don't know any more than you do. I'm handsome and tall, but I ain't Nostradamus. Second place, as a practical matter I've watched my customers (learned almost as much from them as I have from my children) and those who do best are those who just buy when they have the money, and come back and keep on buying. They don't get too worked up or nervous about where the market is, because they are riding the primary trend for the long term. And that works right well.
At least, they're not like me, stuck here sweating that GOLD/SILVER RATIO. One tiny straw in the wind that suggests metals might not have a great day tomorrow is the nearly 1.5% rise in the gold/silver ratio today. Still waiting for 57.5.
Musing back over the yen's performance yesterday, and recalling the current buzz among Those Who Must Talk Whether Mentating Or Not, Asian stocks also rose yesterday, "on Greek Debt Deal Talks" and Japanese industrial production grew faster than economists estimated. A statement so obtuse, so wanting in causal connection, stinks of the same Bimbo Financial Journalism that moved that Canadian TV commentatoress to say gold wasn't a good investment "because it wasn't backed by anything like the US dollar is."
Point is, tons of hot money slosheth around the world looking for a likely place to light, hungry for return, and stupidly harkening to the latest news and commentary, groundless though they be. Investment du jour (IdJ) today is US stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Bernanke's indigestion is improving. Tomorrow the IdJ will be European stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Ferkel and Sarcophagus are no longer miffed at each other. Besides, the planets are lining up and Pisces is ascendant in the Fishbowl. And the Japanese are switching to rice from wheat.
I'll be glad when the adults come back and take charge again.
Okay, I can't dodge it; let's look at today's markets.
Now I've heard of heads and shoulders, upside down and right side up, triangles, boxes, wedges, spikes, and double and triple tops, but I don't recall seeing many Big Ws before. Be that as it may, there 'tis on the US Dollar Index chart, a Big W. Breaks down and begins at 79.50, drops to 78.75, rises to 79.45, drops yet again to 78.75, then today rises to 79.50. Man, that's either a PERFECT double bottom, or it's the Nice Government Men painting the tape. What do y'all reckon?
Mattereth not. Implication is that a dollar close above 79.50 turns the dollar higher, a close below 78.75 pulls the plug.
Dollar index today rose 11.8 magnificent basis points (0.15%, for those of y'all with magnifying glasses) to 79.285. Could it turn and resume its rally from here? Might, but I think the NGM in Japan, Europe, and the US have the dollar on the run, and want to keep it there. After all, a Greek Debt Deal may be near.
Disappointing its partisans, the euro today was chipped and clipped for 0.46%, closing down at 1.3080. It's bouncing off its 62 day moving average, a significant moving average for the euro. Also backed through through the 50 DMA today (131.06). Nothing here suggests the euro is NOT headed higher.
As the mysterious schools of investment herring switch from east to west, the Yen rose again today by 0.17% to 131.19c/Y100 (Y76.22/US$1). I am so suspicious it's scary. Scares even me. I keep looking at the dollar selling at about 130 eurocents and about 130 yen, and I keep thinking, "Now isn't that just like Nice Government Men! They pick some silly target number that makes it obvious to a blind man what they're doing, forgetting that nature doesn't round." This looks like a target range ginned up in a meeting over rubber chicken in Basel at the BIS.
The smell of the sickroom hovereth yet over stocks. A few indices rose today, but the S&P500 and the Dow were not among them. Dow lost 21.04 points (0.17%) to settle at 12,632.68. S&P500 perched at 1,312.39, down 0.62 point or 0.05%.
Folks, y'all lay a ruler across the tops of Thursday, Friday, and on through today. I'll show you a failed breakout attempt today, but nothing else to fertilize respect or optimism. I'll give it this: if the Dow can better 12,700, and the S&P can better 1,320, stocks MIGHT have a chance to creep or crawl higher.
Creep or call, not found new inter-generational wealth transfers. But mostly, stocks want to drop.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01935 Change : -0.000138 or -0.71%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1610.70 Change : -11.10 or -0.68%
Palladium Price Close Today : 686.75 Change : -1.75 or -0.25%
S&P 500 : 1,313.01 Change : -3.32 or -0.25%
Dow In GOLD$ : $151.11 Change : $ 0.04 or 0.03%
Dow in GOLD oz : 7.310 Change : 0.002 or 0.03%
Dow in SILVER oz : 377.76 Change : 2.73 or 0.73%
Dow Industrial : 12,653.72 Change : -6.74 or -0.05%
US Dollar Index : 79.11 Change : 0.131 or 0.17%
Not surprising the socks off anybody but the unshod, the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE both backed away from big resistance today. Gold lost $1.20 to end at $1,731.00 on Comex while silver gave back 26.2c to settle at 3349.7c.
For three days the GOLD PRICE has moved sideways across the chart bounded by roughly $1,715 and $1,740. Friday marked the high, so this line is rounding over downward. Today's low came at $1,716.26. If gold violates that low tomorrow, then it might unravel all the way to $1,680. On the other hand, once it breaks through $1,740, next stop will be $1,805. Might as well steel yourselves for it, a correction will come some time, and fairly soon given the strong rise. Won't be the end of the world, or even the end of the larger rally.
SILVER PRICE three day range has carried it from 3300c all the way to 3400c. The silver chart shows (as does the gold chart) what might with equal justification be called a continuation pattern or a topping pattern. All we can do is watch the boundaries of the range -- 3400c to 3300c and see what happens.
Once again today I have been examining the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart, and again I have to confess that I expect it to make one final push above 57.5. If I'm wrong, y'all can string me up. If you can catch me.
Scariest thing about writing a daily commentary is that buzzard that sits on your shoulder squawking, "What happens when you run out of things to say? Or on the day nothing happens?"
One of the advantages of being a natural born fool is that you never have enough sense to admit that you have nothing to say worth hearing, so that solves the first. But today was one of those days when not much happened. Oh, everybody showed up for work and went through the motions, but nothing much changed.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rallied a mite, up 13.1 basis points (0.17%) to 79.107. This changes nothing, however. Five day chart might have bottomed late Friday, but dollar will have to burst through 79.50 to prove that. 50 day moving average stands above the Dollar Index at 79.67, and other indicators point unanimously down. Not nearly enough enthusiasm to move much higher.
Greek debt talks are foundering -- come to think of it, they've been foundering since they began -- and the euro, having hit 132.34 Friday and its 62 DMA, backed off today to 1.3130, losing 0.68%. This doesn't near about turn the trend down. Look for higher euro still.
Something's going on with the yen, but I don't know what. It's the sorriest of the three big fiat currencies, worst debt, etc., but it's rising. Monday of last week it gapped down horribly in a move that screamed, Government Manipulation. Stayed down one day, traded back up through the 50 DMA, then Friday gapped UP above the 20 DMA and through internal resistance about 130.5c. This points to another trip back to the top of the trading range above 132c.
Against both the euro and the yen gold is breaking out toward the sky. Not quite confirmed yet in the euro, but clearly in an uptrend.
Against the other Loser Fiat Currencies, silver also offers a bright outlook. Silver in Euros has broken out of a down trend and traded up to its 200 DMA, standing above its 20 and 50 DMAs. The 20 has just crossed above the 50. Once silver crosses through 26 euros, it will be bye-bye earth. Silver in yen shows a similar set-up, but not quite as fully unfolded.
STOCKS had another sickly day. Dow only fell about 0.5% to 12,653.72, down 6.75 points, far less than the andSP500 that lost 3.32 points or 0.25%. Other indices lost more than the Dow, too, sending the smell of ripe mackerel into the air. A drop through 12,530 will push the Dow's head underwater. RSI and MACD are ripe to drop.
STOCKS -- they may be YOUR chance to buy a ticket on the Titanic this year.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
There are important factors for the wise investor to take into consideration before investing in silver bullion. The following questions should serve as a general guideline when investing in silver and other precious metals.
I’ve noticed that when I buy silver online I can take delivery or buy silver from a general pool. How does buying silver from a general pool work?
An investor will give a company who controls a large stock, or pool of silver a sum of money for a number of ounces of the white metal. The company then tracks the amount of silver that the individual purchased and deducts the number of ounces from the total ounces of the pool. The investor does not, and generally cannot, take delivery of the purchased silver. The upside to this method of investing is that a large amount (i.e. thousands of ounces) does not need to be stored by the individual and is kept under constant security, possibly in an offshore location. The downside is the investor does not know if the company is selling more silver than it has and the investor does not physically possess his or her investment.
How can I determine which method of silver purchase is right for me?
First, determine the size of the forthcoming investment. If a limited quantity is desired (i.e. a few thousand ounces or less) then locate a secure means of storage – a safe deposit box will do fine. If the quantity to be invested in is more than the secure storage will store, or secure storage cannot be found (a wise investor will shy away from burying an investment in the backyard), then buying silver from a general silver pool may be the best option. A wise investor may choose to diversify his or her investment by taking delivery and owning from a general pool.
There are several different forms of silver. What type is best to own?
Silver bullion can be found in either bars or rounds. Typically silver bullion bars come in 1 oz, 10 oz, 100 oz, and 1,000 oz weights. Usually the 1,000 oz bars aren’t exactly 1,000 oz – these bars are individually weighed and their actual weight is then stamped on the top and side.
Generally, owning 1 oz round coins are more preferable to owning 1 oz bars because when trading silver for goods, rounds are more recognized as a coin and are easier to transport. Rounds will likely be sold in plastic tubes that hold a count of 20 and can be stored vertically or horizontally. 1 oz bars are frequently stored in plastic sheets that can be stacked on top of one another like sheets of paper.
The wise investor keeps in mind that 1,000 oz bars must be redeemed in entirety, so when dealing with a few thousand ounces or less, a combination of 1, 10, and 100 oz bars are probably best. Only when storing a large amount of wealth should 1,000 oz bars be considered.
How do I know that the round I am buying is 1 oz of pure silver?
Silver rounds are 1 oz and are referred to as 1 oz silver rounds. Silver rounds will have the purity and content stamped on the front of the coin. Look for “.999 fine silver” and “1 Troy ounce”. The weight will also be stamped in grams and will vary depending on the mint. A smaller mint may appeal to investors by increasing the coin content from 31.1 grams to 31.2 grams or higher. Content and purity should be stamped on all silver that is sold which includes bars and rounds.
Should I purchase generic, semi-generic, well-known minted, or nationally minted rounds?
It never hurts to own a little bit of each, but generally speaking the wise investor wants the most silver for the money. Generic bullion is the least expensive, but can also be the least recognizable when reselling to a private purchaser. Most coin dealers will purchase generic bullion without any questions being asked. A familiar semi-generic mint is A-mark, and two well-known mints are the Sunshine Mint and Northwest Territorial Mint. Nationally minted bullion coins (i.e. American Silver Eagle, Canadian Silver Maple Leaf, etc.) are more expensive to purchase and do not yield a higher rate of return upon resale. Another type of silver an investor can purchase is pre-1965 U.S. coin bags. These bags have a $1,000 face value and yield approximately 715 ounces of silver. Before circulation the same silver coins contained about 723 ounces but decreased due to wear and tear. It is up to each investor to assess individual needs and make silver purchases accordingly.
How much can I expect to pay for the different types of bullion?
Always be sure to call multiple dealers and suppliers (found online or in the yellow pages under Gold and Silver) to find the best price. Some wholesalers will only sell in bulk (i.e. 500 ounces) and will offer a discounted fee per ounce. Large purchases can be made from a particular mint and spot price can be secured over the phone. When buying several to a few hundred 1 oz rounds, a dealer will typically charge $0.50 over spot per ounce of generic silver bullion. Some deals can be found and anything over $0.50 is probably too much.
When buying semi-generic, widely known, and nationally minted silver bullion the dealer will charge a higher fee as the recognition factor of the mint increases respectively. When deciding which is best to purchase, it is wise to consider future re-sale. It is always safe to own a little of each, but usually the type of mint pertains to private re-sale as most precious metals dealers will accept any minted silver without question.
No permission is needed to reproduce an unedited copy of this article as long the About The Author tag is left in tact and hot links included.
Zach Fross is an investment analyst for the Explosive Speculations Investment Newsletter; a publication geared towards researching the best possible investment opportunities. To find out more about Explosive Speculations and excellent investment opportunities, please visit http://www.ExplosiveSpeculations.com
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