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The price of gold is higher than it has been in 17 years. And it's likely to go much higher. Why? There is a very interesting article in the New York Times that caught my attention. You can read it here… http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/international/24GOLD.html The article is really about how gold mining companies are harming the environment. But, as an investor, here are some key points that I think are important for the gold market… The amount of gold that is left to be mined is extremely small and it is coming from the poorest countries in the world. 70% of gold in now being mined in poor countries.
To get one ounce of gold to make a ring, miners have to dig up and haul...
Gold has always been known as a number one investment option. But is it really that profitable to invest in gold? The gold prices differ each year. Some years are favorable for investments, some are not. Gold has always been considered a safe investment. However, in 1980 the closing price was $ 593.8 per ounce; in 2004 it was $ 442.1 per ounce. So this rally has come as a relief to the gold bulls, who were all but
extinct. Back in year 2000/2001, few were recommending gold, when it
was trading at about U$ 260 per ounce. Today however, after a 70 per
cent rise in the price of gold, the interest in this commodity has
only increased. Our advice to you, be realistic and invest in...
Even after this sharp, steep decline in gold prices, I am still very confident that after this correction ends that gold will go much much higher. Gold has increased volatility these days because of all the hedge funds that pump and dump commodities such as gold. Recently I’ve already read of numerous hedge funds that were forced to close due to millions of dollars they have lost for investors based on their speculative bets. Prior to the Gold ETF coming into existence just a couple of years ago in the U.S., it was difficult for hedge funds to speculate on gold in huge positions. Unfortunately, now it is not. And unfortunately, gold, already a traditionally volatile asset, has become more...
Appears that the SILVER and GOLD PRICE broke today, or at the very least, must back off for a running start at $1,750 and 3400c. The GOLD PRICE lost $18.90 to close Comex at $1,737.90, and in the aftermarket lost another $10 to $1,726.10. Silver lost 42.6c, closing at 3372.5c, but dropped nearly another 25c in the aftermarket, falling to 3349c.
"Twas a big tumble for both. Let's look closer.
GOLD PRICE wiped out all its gains since Monday down at $1,725 support/resistance. After rising all week, that's not terribly surprising, but come Monday gold had better wake up and dig its claws into the bark, or it might fall out of the tree. Support stretches out its limbs at $1,725 and $1,705. Breaking those takes gold down to $1,680.
Up above, the GOLD PRICE high close has been $1,756.80 (yesterday), but it hasn't been able to breach $1,760. Therefore, watch that level on the upside.
Today's break probably wasn't enough to correct the move up from $1,523.90, but a drop to $1705 might be. More likely target is $1,675. That would also mark a kiss-back to the downtrend line.
SILVER PRICE looks like gold, but the range is 3440c and 3290c. Always bear in mind that silver is much more volatile than gold, both upside and downside.
First, if silver's rally has not been stymied at the 300 day moving average (3448c) for a goodly correction, then it can't fall below 3300c.
Next, a routine and shallow correction would sweep silver to 3250c - 3200c. If things get pricklier, then 3100c. Lowest target expected would be 2950c. Of course, we have to patiently wait to see how the correction unfolds.
Meanwhile, another buying opportunity is coming y'all's way. Stop your ears now against all the Wall Street Sirens who will be shrieking the silver and gold bull market has died. By now you understand that those folks don't know no more than somebody who works as a spokesman for a government numbers office.
One glance at the chart tells you that silver and gold and platinum and palladium all trod water this week. On the other hand, stocks rose this week, mostly today. US dollar index flatlined, and today silver and gold broke.
Lo and Behold! The Dow exceeded 12,850 today, and fact of the business is, nearly reached the May intraday high (12,876). Dow today gained a respectable 156.82 points (1.23%) to close at 12,862.23, nearly on the 12,869.95 high. S&P500 was even happier, rising 19.36 points (1.46%) to 1,344.90. What has everybody clambering all over each other to buy stocks?
Well, if you can believe it, government numbers. Personally, I don't put nearly as much stock in government numbers as I do in astrology, and I couldn't even tell you what my birth sign is -- the Possum, or the Turkey Buzzard, maybe.
Yet in this age of Reason, High Technology, and Right Big Government Lies, people still suck up those government numbers like they were single malt scotch at a free bar.
All this big news was that the government's unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, nearly the low for the last three years. (On another note, if you believe unemployment is 8.3%, call me about some wooden Krugerrands I can sell you really cheap.)
Truth is, market was looking for some excuse to rise, that was the news today, so it took the bait.
Oh, and by the way, did I tell y'all that a Greek Debt Deal Is Near?
Y'all might wonder why I am so negative on stocks. Because they are in a primary down trend (bear market), and if I don't do much more than keep you out of stocks, five years from now you'll still think I was the brightest bulb in the box. Hide and watch.,
That US Dollar Index this week played Bait and Switch. Looked like it would break through 79.50 and fall off the face of the earth, but it stopped and rallied and even ended the week 7.6 basis points higher than last Friday.
Today the dollar index lost a tee-tiny 3.2 basis points (0.04%), leaving me wondering why the currency market has gone so quiet all of a sudden. It ended at 78.959, but climbed as high as 79.357. This currency thing isn't clear. Dollar may rally still and euro may sink to its intrinsic value -- zero -- before the dollar does.
The 1.3200 level seems to have blocked the euro this week. Closed 1.3155 today, up 0.06%. Also bumping up against its critical 62 day moving average, and can't punch through. Brace yourself for another stumble for the euro.,
Reason hath fled the yen market. Closed today down 0.50% at 130.56c/Y100 (76.59/US$1), giving back a third of its spectacular gains since 24 January. It gaps down, then bounces right back, gaps up, then waterfalls down. Why does that picture make me thing of Nice Government Men in their cubicles phoning their partners in manipulation on the market floor?
Well, I know election year has come because so many pious confessions are spontaneously erupting from politicians' lips. Yesterday it was Bernard O'Bama shaking out his Christianity before the National Prayer Breakfast, and even Newt Gingrich is claiming to have got religion. You may think I am harsh to say these things, but I say it's as sorry as gully dirt for politicians to trade on their faith. I never have thought much of them "talkin'" Christians, only the "walkin'" ones. They never need to tell you what they believe, because you already know from watching 'em.
All the This Day In History websites say that the 16th (income tax) amendment was ratified 3 February 1913, but that's a lie. Secretary of State Philander Knox fraudulently and knowingly certified it when it had never passed. The irregularities in the supposed state ratifications are too numerous to list, but you can read all about it in "The Law That Never Was" by Bill Benson and Red Beckman. Of course, if you don't pay the income tax, the government will try to jail or kill you.
Speaking of the IRS, tax time is fast approaching. My friend, Dan Pilla, Jr., at www.taxhelponline.com has over 25 years experience fighting with the IRS for taxpayers' rights. If you have bad tax problems, Dan's the man to call. One of the 11 books he has written is "How to Get Tax Amnesty." Check him out. I receive no remuneration whatever for recommending Dan.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01933 Change : 0.000210 or 1.10%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1617.20 Change : 35.40 or 2.24%
Palladium Price Close Today : 697.75 Change : 12.40 or 1.81%
S&P 500 : 1,324.09 Change : 11.67 or 0.89%
Dow In GOLD$ : $150.46 Change : $ 0.20 or 0.14%
Dow in GOLD oz : 7.279 Change : 0.010 or 0.14%
Dow in SILVER oz : 376.47 Change : -3.66 or -0.96%
Dow Industrial : 12,716.46 Change : 83.55 or 0.66%
US Dollar Index : 78.93 Change : -0.356 or -0.45%
The SILVER and GOLD PRICE both enjoyed a profitable day. Gold busted clean through the $1,740 barrier and closed at a new high for the move, $1,747.10, up $9.30. Gold also posted a new intraday high, $1,750.77, but couldn't clear that $1,750 wall.
The GOLD PRICE Relative Strength Indicator has now reached the "Shur-nuff Overbought" level, but little else hints this rally will end any time soon. Above stands $1,800, which without question will pull out a big knobkerrie and pound gold about the head and shoulders. But that's $50 higher.
SILVER gained 54.5c today and closed Comex at a new high, barely, 3377.8c, but it didn't manage to clear the next resistance, 3400c. That hurdle just stands there, rock solid for the moment.
Thus although today silver encouraged us, it didn't reach in its pocket and put any real money on the table. We are left looking at the same range, 3300c to 3400c, and until silver breaks out of that prison, nothing has happened.
Y'all are going to look back one of these days and tell your children, "You know, once upon a time I had a chance to buy silver at thirty-four dollars!" They'll look at you in wonderment, and then ask, "Grandpappy, what's a dollar?"
Good thing about writing these commentaries is that every day that dawns brings a new chance to be wrong.
I was not, however, wrong to suspect silver and gold were about to jump, based on that one-slightly- down-other-slightly-up rule. But more below.
Okay, y'all, a Greek Debt Deal Is Near. Don't forget that. What kind of person would I be if I didn't remind y'all?
The US dollar, Laughingstock Of Fiat Currencies, only slightly less ridiculous than the euro and yen, shed 35.6 basis points (0.46%) today to land at 78.932. Yesterday's Big W resolved into a triple top, and obligingly fell lower than Friday's lows, to 78.623, relieving our minds of the worry that it might suddenly rally. Still, give the devil his due. Until the dollar clearly violates that 78.60 level, it's liable to do anything. Well, we all know that over time it can only do one thing -- slowly evaporate -- but I mean in the short run.
The scruffy and disgusting euro is flagging at the 62 day moving average, today 1.3209. Euro closed up 0.58% at 1.3158. Looks like it won't punch through, but will fall again for some sort of double bottom.
Did I mention that a Greek Debt Deal Is Near? Don't forget that. That will really help the euro by, uh, by, uh, well, I'm sure it will help Greece, at least. We won't talk about all the other bankrupt countries because one of them begins with an F.
On the other side of the globe pretty much nobody knows what they're doing, because they bid up the doomed yen 0.07% to 131.32c/Y100 (Y76.20/US$1). It's still rallying -- why is anybody's guess, given the fundamentals. Never mind, don't expect anything to make sense in a fiat money world.
Okay, stocks hung me on my own words, and sure's this world did manage to peck through 12,700. Dow rose 83.55 (0.66%) today and closed at 12,716.46. S&P500 rose through my strict 1,320 to 1,324.08, gaining 11.67 (0.89%).
As that notorious wit and indefatigable wag, Queen Victoria, used to quip, "We are not amused." Nor are we enthused. Stocks may simply be setting up for a little double top below 12,850, whence they will sink like your car keys when they were in your shirt pocket and you leaned over to get a better view of Hoover Dam. BICBW.
Anyway, who would want to own stocks and undergo all that fatigue of trying to pick the right one and do all that worrying when you can just buy gold or silver, stick it in the safe, and wait until Ben Bernancubus and the US Gov do what they do best: destroy the dollar.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01912 Change : -0.000284 or -1.47%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.80 Change : -40.00 or -2.47%
Palladium Price Close Today : 685.35 Change : -3.15 or -0.46%
S&P 500 : 1,312.39 Change : -0.62 or -0.05%
Dow In GOLD$ : $150.27 Change : $ (0.83) or -0.55%
Dow in GOLD oz : 7.269 Change : -0.040 or -0.55%
Dow in SILVER oz : 380.12 Change : 3.47 or 0.92%
Dow Industrial : 12,632.68 Change : -21.04 or -0.17%
US Dollar Index : 79.81 Change : 0.023 or 0.03%
Y'all have observed with me, over the last year or so, that a day when silver drops a little and the GOLD PRICE rises a little, is often followed by a day when both shoot up. Today the SILVER PRICE dropped 26.4c to 3323.3c, after making a slightly higher high at 3407c. Now, that might be might form the first half of a key reversal down (new intraday high and lower close, followed by lower close next day), but it might not. Silver still held up at 3300c, and never sank lower than 3292.
Cut silver some slack! It's butting its head against a big downtrend line from the August high, and it's still above its uptrend line from the 29 December low. We're warned, it MIGHT drop, but if it works its way through 3400c resistance, y'all can kiss silver good-bye because it will shoot skyward. But silver must hold 3292c.
While silver was dropping 26.4c, the GOLD PRICE gained $6.80 to $1,737.80, chugging on up a mighty steep mountain. More, gold pushed through $1,740 resistance to $1,747.32 (knocking hard on $1,750) and easily caught a downspike to $1,725.90, proving that support.
Like the SILVER PRICE, should the GOLD PRICE punch through $1,750, all the shorts will flee in panic, clutching their wallets. On the other hand, today also told you that gold cannot afford weakness at $1,725.
In bull markets these rallies always climb a wall of worry. People keep asking me if they should buy here, or buy half here and wait to see if metals will drop. First place, I don't know any more than you do. I'm handsome and tall, but I ain't Nostradamus. Second place, as a practical matter I've watched my customers (learned almost as much from them as I have from my children) and those who do best are those who just buy when they have the money, and come back and keep on buying. They don't get too worked up or nervous about where the market is, because they are riding the primary trend for the long term. And that works right well.
At least, they're not like me, stuck here sweating that GOLD/SILVER RATIO. One tiny straw in the wind that suggests metals might not have a great day tomorrow is the nearly 1.5% rise in the gold/silver ratio today. Still waiting for 57.5.
Musing back over the yen's performance yesterday, and recalling the current buzz among Those Who Must Talk Whether Mentating Or Not, Asian stocks also rose yesterday, "on Greek Debt Deal Talks" and Japanese industrial production grew faster than economists estimated. A statement so obtuse, so wanting in causal connection, stinks of the same Bimbo Financial Journalism that moved that Canadian TV commentatoress to say gold wasn't a good investment "because it wasn't backed by anything like the US dollar is."
Point is, tons of hot money slosheth around the world looking for a likely place to light, hungry for return, and stupidly harkening to the latest news and commentary, groundless though they be. Investment du jour (IdJ) today is US stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Bernanke's indigestion is improving. Tomorrow the IdJ will be European stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Ferkel and Sarcophagus are no longer miffed at each other. Besides, the planets are lining up and Pisces is ascendant in the Fishbowl. And the Japanese are switching to rice from wheat.
I'll be glad when the adults come back and take charge again.
Okay, I can't dodge it; let's look at today's markets.
Now I've heard of heads and shoulders, upside down and right side up, triangles, boxes, wedges, spikes, and double and triple tops, but I don't recall seeing many Big Ws before. Be that as it may, there 'tis on the US Dollar Index chart, a Big W. Breaks down and begins at 79.50, drops to 78.75, rises to 79.45, drops yet again to 78.75, then today rises to 79.50. Man, that's either a PERFECT double bottom, or it's the Nice Government Men painting the tape. What do y'all reckon?
Mattereth not. Implication is that a dollar close above 79.50 turns the dollar higher, a close below 78.75 pulls the plug.
Dollar index today rose 11.8 magnificent basis points (0.15%, for those of y'all with magnifying glasses) to 79.285. Could it turn and resume its rally from here? Might, but I think the NGM in Japan, Europe, and the US have the dollar on the run, and want to keep it there. After all, a Greek Debt Deal may be near.
Disappointing its partisans, the euro today was chipped and clipped for 0.46%, closing down at 1.3080. It's bouncing off its 62 day moving average, a significant moving average for the euro. Also backed through through the 50 DMA today (131.06). Nothing here suggests the euro is NOT headed higher.
As the mysterious schools of investment herring switch from east to west, the Yen rose again today by 0.17% to 131.19c/Y100 (Y76.22/US$1). I am so suspicious it's scary. Scares even me. I keep looking at the dollar selling at about 130 eurocents and about 130 yen, and I keep thinking, "Now isn't that just like Nice Government Men! They pick some silly target number that makes it obvious to a blind man what they're doing, forgetting that nature doesn't round." This looks like a target range ginned up in a meeting over rubber chicken in Basel at the BIS.
The smell of the sickroom hovereth yet over stocks. A few indices rose today, but the S&P500 and the Dow were not among them. Dow lost 21.04 points (0.17%) to settle at 12,632.68. S&P500 perched at 1,312.39, down 0.62 point or 0.05%.
Folks, y'all lay a ruler across the tops of Thursday, Friday, and on through today. I'll show you a failed breakout attempt today, but nothing else to fertilize respect or optimism. I'll give it this: if the Dow can better 12,700, and the S&P can better 1,320, stocks MIGHT have a chance to creep or crawl higher.
Creep or call, not found new inter-generational wealth transfers. But mostly, stocks want to drop.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01935 Change : -0.000138 or -0.71%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1610.70 Change : -11.10 or -0.68%
Palladium Price Close Today : 686.75 Change : -1.75 or -0.25%
S&P 500 : 1,313.01 Change : -3.32 or -0.25%
Dow In GOLD$ : $151.11 Change : $ 0.04 or 0.03%
Dow in GOLD oz : 7.310 Change : 0.002 or 0.03%
Dow in SILVER oz : 377.76 Change : 2.73 or 0.73%
Dow Industrial : 12,653.72 Change : -6.74 or -0.05%
US Dollar Index : 79.11 Change : 0.131 or 0.17%
Not surprising the socks off anybody but the unshod, the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE both backed away from big resistance today. Gold lost $1.20 to end at $1,731.00 on Comex while silver gave back 26.2c to settle at 3349.7c.
For three days the GOLD PRICE has moved sideways across the chart bounded by roughly $1,715 and $1,740. Friday marked the high, so this line is rounding over downward. Today's low came at $1,716.26. If gold violates that low tomorrow, then it might unravel all the way to $1,680. On the other hand, once it breaks through $1,740, next stop will be $1,805. Might as well steel yourselves for it, a correction will come some time, and fairly soon given the strong rise. Won't be the end of the world, or even the end of the larger rally.
SILVER PRICE three day range has carried it from 3300c all the way to 3400c. The silver chart shows (as does the gold chart) what might with equal justification be called a continuation pattern or a topping pattern. All we can do is watch the boundaries of the range -- 3400c to 3300c and see what happens.
Once again today I have been examining the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart, and again I have to confess that I expect it to make one final push above 57.5. If I'm wrong, y'all can string me up. If you can catch me.
Scariest thing about writing a daily commentary is that buzzard that sits on your shoulder squawking, "What happens when you run out of things to say? Or on the day nothing happens?"
One of the advantages of being a natural born fool is that you never have enough sense to admit that you have nothing to say worth hearing, so that solves the first. But today was one of those days when not much happened. Oh, everybody showed up for work and went through the motions, but nothing much changed.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rallied a mite, up 13.1 basis points (0.17%) to 79.107. This changes nothing, however. Five day chart might have bottomed late Friday, but dollar will have to burst through 79.50 to prove that. 50 day moving average stands above the Dollar Index at 79.67, and other indicators point unanimously down. Not nearly enough enthusiasm to move much higher.
Greek debt talks are foundering -- come to think of it, they've been foundering since they began -- and the euro, having hit 132.34 Friday and its 62 DMA, backed off today to 1.3130, losing 0.68%. This doesn't near about turn the trend down. Look for higher euro still.
Something's going on with the yen, but I don't know what. It's the sorriest of the three big fiat currencies, worst debt, etc., but it's rising. Monday of last week it gapped down horribly in a move that screamed, Government Manipulation. Stayed down one day, traded back up through the 50 DMA, then Friday gapped UP above the 20 DMA and through internal resistance about 130.5c. This points to another trip back to the top of the trading range above 132c.
Against both the euro and the yen gold is breaking out toward the sky. Not quite confirmed yet in the euro, but clearly in an uptrend.
Against the other Loser Fiat Currencies, silver also offers a bright outlook. Silver in Euros has broken out of a down trend and traded up to its 200 DMA, standing above its 20 and 50 DMAs. The 20 has just crossed above the 50. Once silver crosses through 26 euros, it will be bye-bye earth. Silver in yen shows a similar set-up, but not quite as fully unfolded.
STOCKS had another sickly day. Dow only fell about 0.5% to 12,653.72, down 6.75 points, far less than the andSP500 that lost 3.32 points or 0.25%. Other indices lost more than the Dow, too, sending the smell of ripe mackerel into the air. A drop through 12,530 will push the Dow's head underwater. RSI and MACD are ripe to drop.
STOCKS -- they may be YOUR chance to buy a ticket on the Titanic this year.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
Today the GOLD PRICE rose $5.50 to $1,732.20 and silver rose 4.5c to 3374.7c.
The SILVER PRICE gained 6.6% this week, gold gained 4.1%. Meanwhile, they also bludgeoned their way through two or three resistance levels. This is about as good a week's performance as I have ever seen.
On Wednesday, thanks to the Bernancubus Fed's announcement they will continue jimmying interest rates down and inflating until 2014, gold shot from $1,670 to $1,705 in a single bound, smashing down $1,680 resistance. Next day it pierced $1,705 AND $1,725.
That carries GOLD PRICE through the downtrend line from September a full three percent and three days, proof enough it is a solid breakout. And for good measure gold also rose above its 150 DMA ($1,686), the rarely broken safety net under gold's bull market.
This week SILVER beat 3260c, then 3300c and 3350c and now stands knocking at the 3400c door, where it meets stout resistance. Most important goal here is for silver to climb above its 300 DMA. During this bull market silver has only rarely broken below this moving average. Whenever it crosses above it again, silver is offering you an extremely low-risk buying point.
Some time or other a correction will come. One target is the 200 DMA at 3575c, about where some lateral resistance also abides. Should silver pierce that mark, nothing stands in its way before 4000c.
RSI on both metals stands at 70, pushing the ceiling for overbought, but overbought can easily get MORE overbought and stay there longer than expected.
Big Picture has come into focus. The SILVER and GOLD PRICE correction has ended, but may correct and bump along sideways for the first quarter or two. Nonetheless, both are headed much, much higher. Gold can hit $2,660 this year, silver might hit 7600c, even 8300c.
Is the bull market over? Merciful heavens, NO! The wild part of the ride is only now beginning.
At the end of the football game, what do y'all do? You look at the scoreboard, right? Because even though the game may be fun at the end all that counts is that scoreboard. This week's board says that stocks are spinning wheels, US dollar is backing down the hill with transmission problems, and silver and gold are blasting ahead down the road.
Most notable this week was NOT the metals huge gains, although that was notable enough, but stocks' fall against the metals. On 29 December the Dow in Gold Dollars hit G$164.94 (7.969 oz). Today it's at G$151.32 (7.320 oz), down almost 9% although stocks have risen 3.2% (Dow) and 4.4% (S&P500).
Since 29 December the Dow in Silver Ounces has plunged from 450.5 oz. to 375.74 oz today, falling 16.6%. Instructive.
That 29 December high took both indices to new highs for the move, and for silver, above the long term downtrend line. The outcome until today shows that the tide in stocks versus metals has turned down again, and stocks have begun to lose another 80% of their present value against stocks.
Dow closed today at 12,680.14, down 54.49 (-0.43%) and the S&P500 at 1,318.01, lower by 0.42 (0.3%). This week has shown stocks unable to sustain the enthusiasm of the year's opening. Unless the Dow exceeds 12,850 and the S&P500 1,360, which I do not expect, their next leg will be down -- very much down. Acceleration begins when the Dow drops through 12,600.
The US Dollar did NOT have a good week. It broke support about 80, then 79.5, and today hit itself in the head with a ball peen hammer by dropping another 51.2 basis points (0.66%) to 78.883. Dollar now is trading below its 50 day moving average (79.64) and may be headed for its 200 DMA (76.49).
The euro has profited from the dollar's slide, gaining 0.93% today alone to reach my minimum target of 1.3200. Closed at 1.3237, will rise further next week.
Yen offers a classic snapshot of government manipulation. Gapped down on Tuesday, traded down to support, then gapped UP today. Closed today at 130.35c/Y100 (Y76.72/US$1), up 0.91%. So, let's see -- yen crashed on Tuesday, falling through its 20 DMA and 50 DMA, but today turned right around and shot back up, closing higher than it began the week? If that ain't Nice Government Men in action, canaries have fangs.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
The GOLD PRICE pushed aside the $1,705 resistance like King Kong pushing down New York City streetlights, and sprang clean to next resistance around $1,725.
What more can you ask? Gold has (1) broken out above its downtrend line from September, and (2) traded above the 200, 50, 20, and now 150 day moving averages. Momentum hardly gets more unanimous than that.
Road for gold stretches out to $1,800. Someday will come a correction, not too long looking at the RSI, but not before gold makes more gains.
The SILVER PRICE traded overnight barely below 3300c, at 3297.5c, then climbed like a stubborn Sherpa all day to a 3377.5c high. Comex close at 3370c came very close to the day's high.
Here are the bounds: the SILVER PRICE must not close below 3300c, and must exceed 3400c to keep on rallying. With the world's largest central bank announcing that it will most surely keep on depreciating the dollar, what else would you expect silver to do? If you don't buy the silver breakout at 3400c, you'll never buy anything. It screams too loudly that it intends to move higher.
All that said, remember humility and recall that markets turn on a dime. Closes below 3300c or $1,700 gainsays everything above.
German chancellor Ferkel spoke at the Davos economic forum yesterday, coinciding with the FOMC's actions here. Coincidence? Or timed to manipulate fall of the dollar against the euro? No matter, she said nothing new. Crisis continues to be the elephant in the living room.
An Israeli website reported yesterday that India has agreed to pay for Iranian oil with gold. Not sure whether this can be believed, but if it's true it is a flashing harbinger of change.
Markets followed through today as expected from yesterday: gold and silver up, dollar down, stocks down. Maybe inflation isn't the universal economic panacea after all -- but what do I know? I'm no central banker, I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, not rating even 3 MLCs on the Scientific Stupidity Scale.
STOCKS melted when they approached the Kryptonite of last spring's highs. Dow gave up 21.65 (0.17%) to close 12,735.31 while S&P500 lost 7.60 (0.57%) to close 1,318.45. Dow below 12,650 will accelerate the fall.
More instructive is the last few days' behavior of the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) and the DiSoz. From G$164.94 (7.969 oz) on 29 Dec. the DiG$ has fallen to G$152.47 (7.376 oz) today. From 450.5 oz the DiSoz has plunged to 377.88 oz today. Since the December highs showed upside breakouts on the chart, their retreat and failure now underlines one future: silver and gold will gain much more value against stocks, or, stocks will lose more value against metals. Same thing.
US DOLLAR INDEX today fell 17.7 basis points (0.23%) to 79.402. This further fall below 79.50 merely confirms that the dollar has broken down from its uptrend. Low came at 79.07, and dollar may be forming a rounding bottom there, which would send it higher for a few days. Owch, it's below its 50 DMA (79.59). Lower closes will simply nail more nails into the dollar's coffin.
Euro took a breather today, closing down 0.02% (nothing, basically) to 1.3104. Must remain above 1.3050 or foster suspicions that the ultimate bottom for the euro's long move is not yet behind us.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
In the last two decades, even though gold prices have dwindled from $850 to $350 an ounce, there are still market gurus who predict gold price to hit $3000 an ounce. Hecla seems to be quite bullish about the future.
With oil prices fluctuating between $40 and about $60 a barrel, the industrialized nations are totally dependent upon the foreign oil supply. The US government has a deal with the Saudis for that very purpose. The Saudis have to keep the oil flowing and we, in turn, will keep the monarchy in power. This is a healthy arrangement for both parties in the short run.
I have a serious problem with the $3000 an ounce gold price. If this prediction were to come true, what shall be the interest rate? Can someone answer it for me?
In contradiction to this Saudi deal, the Bush Administration is committed (not officially) but morally, according to the pronouncements of G.W. Bush to stabilize the entire Middle East region by establishing democratic systems of government in a decade.
We can’t have it both ways. We have not succeeded to find any viable sources of alternative energy thus far. The environmentalists won’t let us dig for oil and the car industry has invested millions in the development of better and more energy efficient cars.
At $3000 an ounce for gold, we must maintain an interest rate of at least 20% (my guess). The million dollar question is: what will happen to the mortgage business and the housing industry as a whole? The rate of inflation at present levels will not allow new home buyers to pay their mortgages. May be there will be a sudden boost in the GNP. But how? What will happen to the money supply? Are we going to keep on printing money as we do now?
This was one scenario thus far according to bulls. But the bears view the whole problem differently.
The Oil Price Dilemma
In 2004, we saw a big spike in the oil price. Some analysts today are even forecasting the price increases to more than $60 a barrel in 2005 or even $75 to $80 in the event of a major supply disruption.
The growing demand for oil specially from the U.S. and China underlies most of the price increases because oil is priced in dollars around the globe. A weaker dollar means less revenue for oil producers.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet cited oil prices as one threat to economic growth. The world currently consumes more than 84 million barrels a day of oil. OPEC currently is producing 29 million barrels of oil everyday, roughly a third of world supply.
Are we going to be forced to pay $60 a barrel for oil? Does this mean that the OPEC nations can or may dominate the global economy thru oil? The banking industry has been in a state of turmoil for the last two decades. There are a few reasons for this. The illegal but quite prevalent Havala system of money exchange accounts for part of the problem. The next puzzle is the drug trade funded and operated under cover by some governments in power. The money from such trades (trillions of dollars) is laundered thru banks illegally. Civilized nations are supposed to be ethically run, but are they when it comes to large sums of money?
The rules of the banking industry are too old to fit in the fast changing climate of money transfer from the sale of oil and illegal drug sales. No one has come upon a solution thus far. The rate at which the oil and drug trade money changes hands is much faster than the rate at which the banks can successfully launder it legally. It means that trillions of dollars in cash remain unaccounted for. With that kind of cash it is not difficult to buy weapons or anything you like to topple a government with good planning.
We had hoped the Caspian Sea oil to flow to the US, but that has not happened yet. The Iraqi war and the Afghanistan situation have both tilted the balance of power in the civilized (industrialized) world. But in whose favor?
The purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline. The global political instability continues to remain a problem to contend with.
The vast changes in the crust of the earth have caused the ocean levels to rise and fall in some places. This will bring about dramatic changes. All these factors create a very flexible environment and we will see the changing weather patterns eventually bring about changes in the climate and vegetation in many countries.
What does the wave theory say about the stock markets of the future and the world economy as a whole? The mass migration of peoples of the earth will be the next step. This can mean that certain governments will lose support of their people and thus fall from power.
We can expect the stock markets to become more volatile than they have ever been. Fortunes will be made and lost. Let me remind those who dream of a $3000 an ounce gold price that the gold smugglers can bring tons of it from the Far East and South American routes, buy the most prestigious US properties and create chaos in the world economy. If this happens, you will not care about the DJIA. Why? Because it will cease to exist. We are talking about a very different ball game.
Ninety percent members of the UN are dictatorships. And they would not like to lose power should the gold price rise to $3000 an ounce. I quite forget that the US economy is not backed by gold. How can we have a gold standard? Well, we can’t for the time being. What’s your opinion?
Ostaro is a veteran media personality and has appeared hundreds of times on television,
radio and in print media. A filmmaker, he frequently appears on radio nationally. He is the Producer of "Cobra's Wish", a digital movie - a riveting romantic mystery) (http://www.cobraswish.com).
He is the host/producer of the Ostaro Show (Time Warner and RCN Cable TV every other Fri and Sun in NYC) featuring the best in celebrity horoscopes. He appeared as a Swami in Woody Allen’s ‘Stardust Memories’ and is a member of Screen Actors Guild. Listed in Who’s Who in America, he is a positive thinker and the author of the “Art & Craft of Success: 10 Steps,” published by Svarg Syndicate Inc, NYC. Mr. Ostaro is a Premier Hindu Astrologer of New York City, he is a Kentucky Colonel, a Toastmaster (ATM), and an investment adviser.
There are many ways to own gold, many forms: jewelry, bullion, coins, mutual funds, gold mining stocks (indirectly) and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). The latter are similar to mini mutual funds, but usually have few stocks and they remain constant rather than have internal trading as mutual funds do.
So you can own gold. So what? Why bother when it does not pay any interest or pay any dividends? What is interesting to note that one ounce of gold today will buy the same amount of goods as it did 100 years ago. That item in 1906 might have been $1.00 and today the same item would be priced at $100, but when translated into ounces of gold the weight is the same. Doesn’t that make you wonder? That is inflation at work. Gold is inflation proof. Man has had an ongoing love affair with gold since time began. Every culture has valued it. Columbus didn’t set out to find America. He came looking for gold. Gold is the only real store of wealth not the paper we call money. Dollars have depreciated about 50% in value over the past 18 years. It is hard to realize as it sneaks up on us that each day that our dollars are worth less in purchasing power. Wealth is purchasing power. The Federal government prints money that has no backing other than their word. Each dollar is watered down as the printing presses turn. Every war is financed with paper money not gold. If wars were financed with gold there would be fewer wars. People were not interested in California. It was too far and too hard to get to, but when the cry of ‘gold’ went up thousands made the journey to strike it rich. One enterprising man in San Francisco found out about the strike and did not head for the American River to pan for riches. He bought up every pan, pick and shovel in town and them went out to spread...
Yahoo! Finance - Found Jan. 25, 2012 ... the option of investing in gold producers --the companies that literally search for, mine, and lift physical gold from the earth. Investing in...
Business Spectator - Found Jan. 24, 2012 ... night but the popular cables, including DailyFX in the US, are claiming our currency as a better alternative to investing in gold and silver.
TheStreet.com - Found Feb. 1, 2012 By Michelle Smith-Exclusive to Gold Investing News Nestled between Vietnam and Thailand is Cambodia, a poor country with a basket of largely untapped ...
Focus Bulgaria - Found 2 hours ago 24 Chasa Daily, Fibank’s executive director Vasil Hristov says a rising number of Bulgarians prefer investing in gold and mutual funds to...
Sydney Morning Herald - Found 1 hour ago Radar?s Portfolio Manager says that when investing in small technology ... on how to use its technology.Red 5?s gold spookAnother company that made
The Australian - Found 3 hours ago ... to believe in the gold story, but you have to be choosy. First, though, a gold strategy demands you won't be frightened off by the many gold...
Reuters UK - Found 1 hour ago ... sell off as jobs report cuts bets on stimulus > Gold falls on U.S. jobs ... s largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing ...
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